The takeaways of General Election 2024
By Mrinal Talukdar
As the dust settles after the long and arduous two-month election process, resulting in a coalition government with Narendra Modi as Prime Minister for a third term and a strengthened opposition led by a more formidable Rahul Gandhi, here are the eight key takeaways.
1.The Waning Appeal of the “Hindu-Muslim” Narrative
The “Hindu-Muslim” narrative, which has been a staple in the BJP’s electoral strategy, appears to be losing its broad appeal. While it still resonates within an echo chamber and with the BJP’s core base, its effectiveness in wider electoral contests is diminishing. This shift is evident from the election results in states like Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and even Ayodhya. The BJP’s success in Odisha, achieved with minimal emphasis on communal issues, underscores this point.
2.Civil Liberties and the Common Man
Contrary to common perceptions, civil liberties, democracy, and individual rights are highly valued by the “aam aadmi” (common man), not just the urban middle class. Many expressed frustration over the lack of free speech, a sentiment that may have contributed to the inaccuracies in exit polls. The suppression of free speech has become a significant issue that resonates deeply with the broader populace. Instead of Ram Temple becoming a major issue, the Save Constitution, became the issue of the masses.
3.The 400-Par Slogan: A Potential Self-Goal
The ambitious 400-par slogan set by the BJP may have inadvertently set the stage for its own challenges. By setting expectations sky-high, the slogan allowed the opposition to effectively leverage the “Constitution in Danger” issue, particularly resonating with Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh. The opposition capitalized on this, emphasizing the importance of democracy and fundamental rights for the underprivileged, which struck a chord with many voters.
4 Unemployment: India’s Biggest Challenge
Unemployment remains India’s most pressing issue, demanding top priority from the next government. Even BJP supporters frequently mentioned unemployment, albeit with a belief that Modi was best positioned to address it. However, schemes like “free grain” fall short of addressing the underlying issue; young people are vocal about their need for employment opportunities rather than mere handouts.
5. Modi’s Popularity vs. Election Strategy
Despite Modi’s enduring popularity, the BJP’s strategy to frame the elections as a “Modi vs. who?” referendum did not fully materialize. Instead, the opposition succeeded in turning the elections into a series of state-level localized contests. As discussed in a recent show, a Modi-centric referendum could have resulted in 300+ seats for the BJP, whereas the reality of state-centric elections led to a final tally of 240-250 seats.
6. The Rise of Rahul Gandhi
Just a year ago, Rahul Gandhi and the Indian National Congress seemed on the brink of irrelevance, posing little threat to Modi’s dominance. The Congress had been steadily losing ground in national elections, with each defeat more dismal than the last. Additionally, Gandhi himself faced personal setbacks, including a slander conviction that barred him from Parliament.
However, in a surprising turn of events, Gandhi and a broad opposition coalition led by Congress performed much better than expected in the recent elections, paving the way for a potential resurgence. Gandhi showcased his evolution as a politician, deftly deflecting questions about future strategies and emphasizing collective decision-making within the alliance. Despite Congress’s reputation as a challenging ally, the Gandhi family, particularly Rahul, invested heavily in the INDIA bloc, recognizing that the Congress alone could not counter the Modi phenomenon.
To maintain the alliance, the Congress made significant concessions and Gandhi actively demonstrated unity with other party leaders, fostering a sense of camaraderie among workers and voters. His campaign messaging, influenced by insights from the Bharat Jodo Yatra and Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, focused on social justice as an alternative to the BJP’s Hindutva agenda. Throughout the campaign, Gandhi and Congress maintained composure, refusing to be provoked by the BJP or Modi.
7.The Crucial Role of Women Voters
Women voters have emerged as a critical demographic. Schemes often dismissed by the urban elite as “freebies” significantly improve the lives of women and their families. However, gratitude for these benefits can be directed either towards the central or state government. For instance, in West Bengal, the TMC won the majority of seats where women outvoted men, demonstrating the pivotal role women voters play in electoral outcomes.
8.Economic Outlook and Business Sentiment
The Indian economy and markets are expected to remain stable. Many businessmen, speaking off the record, indicated that their ideal scenario was a Modi government with its vision and execution, but somewhat weakened to ensure checks and balances and eliminate the “fear factor.” This seems to be the current outcome, providing a balance that could foster a healthier business environment.
The election once again highlighted the complexity of Indian politics, where unemployment, civil liberties, and the strategic roles of key demographics like women voters intersect with traditional political narratives and emerging alliances. The evolving political landscape suggests a need for nuanced strategies not religion and a focus on substantive issues that resonate with the broader electorate.
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